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If you’ve ever taken a stats class, you’ve probably seen a chart like this one before. It’s a random number table, used by statisticians for ensuring absolute randomness in research. Imagine some researchers want to do a survey and will be using the phone book to call people up and ask them some questions. Without getting into it too much, it’s important that you understand that they can’t just flip open the phone book and “randomly” point at names and get an official sample. There are all sorts of factors that can influence selecting folks to call: where their names are on the page, if the names are listed next to each other, or if I am drawn toward phone numbers that are eye-catching (like 353-7777).

Instead, researchers will use a chart like this to guide their calls, perhaps by counting to the 8th person on the list, then down 3 more, then 1 more, then 3 more, then 7 more, and so on. Just as I use a completely fair, outside deciding agent–a coin–in my first example to see if I win a prize, so also must scientists use randomly generated directions (like a number chart) to guide their randomness.

What does this have to do with your SAT score?

Well, the SAT is a test designed such that you aren’t rewarded for guessing. If you answer a question correctly you earn 1 point; if you leave it blank you lose nothing. However, if you answer incorrectly, you lose one quarter of a point. Obviously you have a lot to gain by getting an answer correct and so many students use guessing strategies to be successful on the test. Some students have a rule of thumb that if they can eliminate two of the five choices, they’ll guess, because theoretically they have a statistical chance of 1/3 of getting it right. If they guess on 9 questions and get 3 right (which pure statistics tell us they would), that would mean they gain 3 points, lose 1.5 (6 x .25), and net 1.5 (which actually ends up rounding up to a net of 2).

Sounds great, right?

So how come I’m not an avid fan of guessing? How come it’s not one of my primary strategies for my students both in private tutoring and in Outsmarting the SAT? Am I doing them a disservice by not advocating the practice for everyone?

I don’t believe so, and this is why:

A student guessing on a standardized test is not a true random guesser and ETS knows it.

Say I’m working on a sentence completion question and I have confidently eliminated two answer choices, so I’m left with three words: histrionic, cataclysmic, and hierarchical. First, let me point out that the folks reading this post have a better chance of making a statistically random guess than someone who has read a sentence directly related to one of these words. However, even without seeing the question, we’re still not going to be completely random–I may choose the word histrionic because I’m a teenager and my dad uses it to describe me (and though I’ve never bothered to ask him what he means, it may be “a sign”), or I may ignore it because it looks like the word history and I don’t think that’s related to the sentence I’ve just read.

While a student working through the test may not be as long-winded in his rationale for choosing or ignoring a particular word, sometimes a mere “oh yes, I’ve heard that before” can sway a student. Or, if the last two answers were C, a student will usually not select C as his guess (when really the pattern of answers is completely irrelevant.) I honestly believe that ETS knows exactly what they’re doing when they include words that look like one thing and mean another or words that are more ubiquitous than others. They make true random guessing that much more difficult.

The definition of educated guessing is that one makes a guess informed by additional factual information. In these circumstances it is often very difficult for a student to sort through facts and his gut feelings. For some students this is a great boon: they’re the kids whose instincts are usually right on, and after plenty of connoisseurship of their own propensity to guess correctly, I advise them to go right ahead and do so.

And then there’s me. I am the The Worst Guesser On Earth. I categorically do not, no way, no how, ever guess on the SAT. Why? Well ignoring that I usually don’t need to, on the rare occasion that I’m caught without a clue, I guess wrong. It’s like a hex. I don’t know why this is the case, but evidently my own biases and “educated guesses” are way off track.

The sad fact is that as much as we’d like to believe that stats will come to our aid and boost our SAT scores, we’re never randomly guessing at the testing center. It’s also why you may want to be wary of any tutor that relies on guessing strategies to help you prepare for the test. Remember, everything on the SAT can be learned. However, if you still struggle here and there, your best bet is to track yourself–in your practice work, note when you’ve guessed and note how often you guess correctly. If it’s working for you, go with it. If you’re anything like me, you’ll probably prefer to leave answers blank.

–Duke doesn’t actually suggest preparation for either test, so don’t feel enormously pressured to prepare. In fact, Duke TIP clearly states on the program’s site that they don’t want students to feel stressed when approaching the test, especially because stress on test day may have a negative impact on scores.

–However, if you do want to minimize test intimidation, your student may feel more empowered by actually seeing a copy of the SAT or ACT before test day just to know what she’s getting into. Free sample tests are available on both the College Board and ACT websites. Remember that the SAT does dock scores for incorrect answers—to score around a 500 on an SAT section, one needs to answer just over half the questions correctly and leave the rest of the test blank. Answering or guessing too zealously may be to your disadvantage. However, the ACT does not take off points for incorrect answers, so you want to encourage your student to select an answer for every question on the test (yes—Christmas Tree during the last five minutes).

Investigating the scoring rubrics in either The Official SAT Study Guide, 2nd edition
or The Real ACT Prep Guide: The Only Official Prep Guide From The Makers Of The ACT
can help you sort out how to earn the scores you need.

–Having your student take a practice test, even just at home at the kitchen table, can be helpful for selecting the best test for her. You may want to keep in mind that the SAT employs a far more robust vocabulary than the ACT, while the ACT includes a fast-paced Science Reasoning section that tests data-interpretation skills (rather than high-school level science).

– The Duke TIP cutoff scores are usually at or just above a 500 on each section of the SAT, which translates to roughly a 20 or 21 on the ACT.

–If you decide you do want to prepare your student, some of the faster, more learnable elements of both tests include Algebra, basic Geometry (not proofs, but rather understanding angles, lines, and degrees), and Grammar. Since you’re just out to collect as many correct points as possible, concentrating on a few specific topics may streamline the process of reaching the cutoff scores. Outsmarting the SAT was written for students to learn these concepts from the ground up, it’s a great option for basic skill-gathering for both the SAT and ACT; use it in conjunction with The Official SAT Study Guide, 2nd edition or The Real ACT Prep Guide: The Only Official Prep Guide From The Makers Of The ACT for real practice questions.

–We’re happy to help and congratulations on having such an accomplished child!

Tomorrow we’re going to bring our tickets and IDs and #2 pencils (they say you’re not allowed to use a mechanical pencil, so I’d bring the old fashioned kind in case you have a stickler proctor). We’re leaving the cell phones at home, because if it rings, buzzes, or you’re seen touching one during the test you’re out the door no questions asked. 

We’re going to bring a snack or two, like peanut butter crackers and a banana (not a donut) and definitely a bottled water, too. 

And if you’re stressed out, you may want to look into the latest piece of my ongoing series with Barbara Ann Cochran, Gold Medalist and Coach Extraordinaire– she can help you sort out what all the panic is about and how to get past it here.

Until now my general rule of thumb for practicing the reading passages on the SAT or ACT is “don’t read them aloud because you have to read silently during the test.” I’m all about practicality and doing things as they should be done, so I’ve always assumed this tactic made the most sense.

But sometimes I have to stop and rethink my strategies and this recent New York Times article has made me do a double take. One of the main tenets of my test prep tactics is based on a single concept: “I’m really good at standardized test; how can I share what I know with others?” Moreover, what are the experiences enhanced my natural test-taking ability and are they applicable to my students?

Reading this article, it hit me: reading aloud at my house wasn’t just something that my mother did with me when I was very young. We weren’t merely a bedtime story household. In fact, some of my favorite memories from my high school years involve hanging out with my mom, reading essays and articles to each other and laughing ourselves to tears.  We read Russell Baker, E.B. White, and George Will to each and talked about what we read. (Yes, seriously.)

The fact is that learning to read with nuance fosters not only an understanding of others’ work but also the ability to edit one’s own work efficiently and masterfully. Practicing communicating—conveying meaning—is integral to developing the very comprehension that the SAT in particular* tests.

What does this mean for us? Well for me and my students it means that we’re going to be doing a lot more reading aloud, and I’m going to be nitpicking their inflection and cadence to more carefully notice when they’ve lost their purpose. For students reading this it means it’s time to start reading out loud, whether to your friend or your family. If you find a funny article online on a magazine, share it with your friends by reading a paragraph or two to them rather than just handing them the magazine. When you’re hanging out on the beach this summer vacation share that funny bit you just read in your beach book.

Join the debate club. Get involved in theater. Consider being part of the literary magazine or yearbook at your school—most clubs that involve writing will involve reading aloud. Most importantly, get in the habit of reading material on a variety of subjects aloud into your daily life. Prioritize it, and you should see your scores increase.

*I say SAT in particular because the ACT’s reading passages are more geared toward testing attention to detail rather than nuance, intention, and implication of the passage itself. 

Also, if you’ll be taking the January 24, 2009 SAT and you’ve not yet registered, you have until December 26, 2008 to do so.